What a regional war actually looks like: The Persian Gulf regimes' assigned roles
With the escalation of American-Israeli aggression against Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon beginning in late February 2026 — and following Iran's response targeting American bases and assets in the Persian Gulf — a path has opened up that was once unclear to many: what would a regional war actually look like?
One of its defining features is the shaking of existing balances. Every regime that has taken part in the aggression, especially in the Persian Gulf, has entered a trajectory shaped by the war itself, with its fate depending entirely on the outcome. Each Persian Gulf regime hosting American bases has been assigned specific roles by the United States in service of American dominance over the region.
The Emirati regime was given the role of escalating normalization and financing militias involved in killing, looting, and fragmentation in Sudan, Libya, Somalia, Yemen, and elsewhere. The Qatari regime was given a more complex, multi-layered role based on three pillars: hosting the largest American military base in the region, wealth, and media — allowing Qatar to advance a composite role that appears to combine two contradictory missions.
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