Vietnam preparing for possible US military aggression: Leaked report

A leaked internal document shows Vietnam is preparing, politically and militarily, for a potential US invasion, casting Washington as a threat to the country’s sovereignty rather than a reliable partner.

Just a year after bringing its ties with Washington to their highest diplomatic level, Vietnam’s military leadership has been preparing for a possible American "war of aggression," viewing the US as a "belligerent power," according to a report released on Tuesday by The 88 Project, a human rights group monitoring developments in Vietnam.

The document underscores Hanoi’s deep concern that Washington could try to destabilize the Vietnamese government through a so-called "color revolution," drawing parallels to Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution and the Philippines’ 1986 Yellow Revolution—both widely viewed by Vietnamese officials as products of US interference.

“There is a consensus here across the government and across different ministries … This is not just some kind of a fringe element or paranoid element within the ruling Communist party or within the government,” said Ben Swanton, co-director of the 88 Project and the author of the report.

The Vietnamese document, titled “The 2nd US Invasion Plan,” was completed by the Ministry of Defense in August 2024 and outlines what officials see as an escalating pattern of American military behavior across multiple administrations.

Vietnamese military analysts trace a pattern over three American administrations, from Barack Obama through Donald Trump’s first term to Joe Biden, noting that Washington has steadily intensified its military and strategic engagements across Asia.

“Due to the US's belligerent nature we need to be vigilant to prevent the US and its allies from ‘creating a pretext’ to launch an invasion of our country,” the plan says.

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The document paints a dark picture of Washington’s intentions, asserting that the US seeks to “spread and impose its values regarding freedom, democracy, human rights, ethnicity and religion” as a means to undermine and ultimately dismantle Vietnam’s socialist political system.

Swanton writes that “The 2nd US Invasion Plan” offers a rare and blunt insight into Hanoi’s foreign policy thinking, showing that Vietnam views Washington not as a genuine strategic partner but as an existential threat, and has no intention of being drawn into a US-led bloc aimed at China.

Recent US military actions abroad have further reinforced these fears. Washington’s operations in and around Venezuela, including the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores on January 3, have intensified Vietnamese distrust toward closer engagement with the US.

Experts warn that any US military aggression against Cuba, another close ally of Hanoi, would send shockwaves through Vietnam’s military and political leadership, severely disrupting the "fragile regional and strategic balance."

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