Israel's strategic expansion in post-Assad Syria

With the fall of Bashar al-Assad, a fleeting wave of hope swept across Syria. For a brief moment, many believed the better future was within reach.

But those dreams quickly dissolved. The new dawn proved to be a mirage. Instead of renewal, Syria plunged deeper into crisis.

As the Assad regime’s power fractured, Israel seized the moment, exploiting the chaos; it launched hundreds of strikes across Syrian territory and quietly expanded its footprint in the south.

In the two days following Assad's overthrow, Israel carried out more than 500 airstrikes targeting both military and civilian infrastructure.

Since then, it has been occupying swathes of Quneitra and Daraa under the banner of preventing extremist threats.

• Israel and post-Assad Syria
  

  Israel and post-Assad Syria

  With the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Israel’s military presence in Syria has evolved from opportunistic incursions into a strategic project.

Since Assad's fall, Israel's military presence has evolved from opportunistic incursions into a strategic project, one aimed at reshaping southern Syria to fit its security and economic map.

From Quneitra to Jabal al-Sheik, also known as Mount Hermon, Israeli forces have entrenched themselves along key highlands, water basins, and energy corridors.

The new balance of power in the Levant increasingly revolves around two words: water and gas.

Jabal al-Sheik, the highest peak in the region, stands as the crown jewel of this expansion. At 2814 meters, it offers an unrivaled surveillance hub, giving Israel a panoramic view from Damascus to the Mediterranean and deep into Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon.

To the southwest, Israeli forces have fortified Quneitra, extending their reach to within 20 kilometers of central Damascus.

• Arab League condemns Israeli ‘illegal actions’ in Syria after Assad’s fall
  

  ‘Exploitation of crisis’: Arab League condemns Israeli ‘illegal actions’ in Syria after Assad’s fall

  The Arab League has denounced Israel’s “illegal actions” in Syria, where the usurping regime is taking advantage of the chaotic situation to expand its occupation of the Arab country.

New positions in Raqqa now oversee three key routes linking Damascus to Beirut and Baalbek, effectively giving Israel a hand on Syria's Western gateways.

In the Suweida province, Israeli influence is spreading under the guise of supporting the Druze.

• Israel threatens to attack city near Syria’s capital
  

  Israel threatens to attack city near Syria’s capital

  Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructs the regime’s military to prepare for potential further military aggression against Syria.

Following the July 2024 formation of the so-called National Guard, a 3000-strong Druze force reportedly funded by Israel, Tel Aviv's reach deepened.

Netanyahu's public pledges to protect the Druze community signaled more than goodwill. They marked the birth of a semi-autonomous security zone, loosely tied to Damascus.

• Israeli forces conduct new incursions into Syria’s Quneitra
  

  Israeli forces conduct new incursions into Syria’s Quneitra, set up checkpoints

  Israeli forces have launched new assaults into several villages and towns in the southern Syrian province of Quneitra, and set up mobile checkpoints there.

Beneath the rhetoric of security, however, lies a contest for control over energy routes and water reserves, the true currency of power in today's Levant.

The revival of the long-stalled Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline has only sharpened these rivalries.

Once blocked by Assad to protect Russian interests, the project roared back into life after its fall.

In December 2024, Turkey's Energy Minister announced its potential restart once Syria stabilizes.

For Israel, that's a red flag. A functioning Qatar-Turkey-Europe pipeline would undercut Israel's own EastMed pipeline ambitions; a direct challenge to its vision of becoming Europe's next gas supplier.

Analysts at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies warn that this gas race pits two visions against each other: Ankara's dream of an Islamic Energy Corridor versus Tel Aviv's push for a Mediterranean one.

• Occupation of Mount Hermon part of ‘Greater Israel’ project
  

  Occupation of Syria’s highest peak Mount Hermon part of ‘Greater Israel’ project

  After the fall of Assad government in Syria, Israel swiftly launched fresh aggression against the country and seized more land beyond the occupied Golan Heights, including the strategic Mount Hermon.

Both see Syria as the crucial crossroads, but Israel's ambitions go beyond gas.

Control of water, the lifeblood of the region, has become another front.

Through its hold over the Yarmouk River Basin and the Al-Wehda Dam on the Syrian-Jordanian border, Israel now wields a strategic lever over both Syria and Jordan.

The Golan basin alone provides nearly a third of Israel's agricultural water needs, and every step deeper into southern Syria secures that lifeline.

From Jabal al-Shaykh to Daraa, Israel's control of springs, rivers, and dams has turned southern Syria into a meticulously managed zone of influence.

In this reshaped landscape, fertile lands once tilled by Syrian Farmers are being eyed for Israeli agricultural expansion, their crops destined for regional markets.

• Israel conducted 800 airstrikes on Syria following Assad's fall
  

  Israel conducted about 800 airstrikes across Syria since Assad's fall

  The Israeli military has launched more than 60 new strikes on Syria, bringing the total number of attacks in a week to about 800.

These same corridors, rich in water and soil, double as potential land routes for future pipelines stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean or Turkey.

The fall of Assad was supposed to bring about a bright season for Syria. Instead, it opened a new chapter of domination, one where Syria, fragmented and exhausted, has become a playground for power politics and expansionist ambitions.

Israel's quiet conquest of the South is not just about borders, it's about resources, leverage and rewriting the strategic map of the Levant.

• Renewed fighting erupts between Druze, HTS forces in Sweida
  

  Renewed fighting erupts between Druze, HTS forces in Sweida: Report

  Fresh clashes have reportedly erupted between HTS and Druze forces in Sweida.

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