A gamble that could backfire: Why Netanyahu resumed war on Gaza

By Hamid Javadi

The world woke up on Tuesday to news of massive Israeli strikes that killed hundreds of Palestinians, including many women and children, across the Gaza Strip—a familiar horror show that had paused briefly when Israel agreed to a ceasefire in January.

The aerial blitzkrieg targeted densely populated areas, makeshift shelters, and residential buildings. Palestinian authorities reported that over 400 people have been killed, mostly women, children, and senior Hamas officials, with hundreds more injured.

Hospitals and civil defense teams in Gaza have been overwhelmed by the wounded.

The renewed offensive comes just 16 days after the first phase of a ceasefire agreement ended. The three-phase deal was intended to bring a definitive end to the war, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the release of all remaining Israeli captives held by Hamas since October 7.

It marks the most significant escalation since the fragile ceasefire took effect on January 19. Condemnations poured in from around the world as images of Palestinian civilian bodies wrapped in white shrouds, soaked in blood, circulated on social media and news outlets.

The United Nations released a statement saying Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was “shocked” by the Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, which resulted in a significant number of civilian deaths. The UN chief, along with many world leaders, including some of Israel’s allies, strongly appealed for the ceasefire to be respected.

But the question is: Why did Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu order the resumption of the no-holds-barred war on Gaza?

To understand the rationale behind this decision, it is important to examine the interplay of domestic pressures, Netanyahu’s own political survival, and a seeming policy shift by the United States under President Donald Trump.

Israeli officials claim the new offensive aims to target Hamas leadership, which has re-emerged to regain control of Gaza. They argue that the renewed attacks will help secure the release of the 59 captives still being held in Gaza.

However, this is hard to believe, as Hamas had been honoring its commitments under the ceasefire deal, releasing Israeli captives in batches as agreed.

It was the Israeli regime that repeatedly violated the deal during its first phase by launching sporadic attacks on Gaza and refusing to move to the second phase, with backing from the United States. The second phase would have included a permanent end to the war and a full withdrawal of occupying forces.

Israel has proposed extending the first phase of the ceasefire by up to 60 days to allow for the release of more captives. Knowing this could strip it of leverage in future negotiations to end the war, Hamas rejected the proposal, calling instead for the second phase of the ceasefire to proceed as previously agreed.

Meanwhile, Israel attempted to impose new terms in the talks, demanding that Hamas continue releasing Israeli captives in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, but without committing to ending the war or withdrawing its forces.

Families of the captives and those already released believe that this approach will only endanger the lives of those still held in Gaza. They have been vocal in their criticism of Netanyahu, accusing him of abandoning their loved ones in favor of military escalation.

An advocacy group representing the families accused the Netanyahu regime of abandoning the remaining captives in Gaza. “We are shocked, angry, and scared about the deliberate disruption of the process to return our loved ones,” the group said in a statement.

While polls show that most Israelis support a ceasefire to bring back the captives, there is a vocal faction of settlers and hardline cabinet members who favor continuing the war until Hamas is “defeated.”

This divide has fueled political tensions within the regime, with many, including some of Netanyahu’s allies, framing a ceasefire as “unpatriotic” and a sign of weakness.

This political faction and their supporters advocate for the complete removal of Palestinians from Gaza, an idea that has gained traction since President Trump floated his contentious plan for the territory, which also includes Israel reclaiming control of settlements it evacuated in 2005.

Netanyahu relies on this faction to maintain his coalition and prevent its collapse. They believe that brute military force against Palestinians is key to Israel’s own survival.

By resuming the aerial aggression, Netanyahu sought to reinforce his image as a leader unwilling to compromise with Hamas. However, this gamble could backfire and even cost him his job as prime minister, something that he holds very dear.

Ultimately, for Netanyahu, the decision boils down to political survival. The prime minister faces immense pressure from his far-right coalition partners to resume the war. Some hawkish ministers had resigned or threatened to resign in protest of the January ceasefire, jeopardizing Netanyahu’s coalition and his rule.

The Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) Party, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, announced its return to the cabinet following the resumption of hostilities on Tuesday. This move provides Netanyahu with crucial votes as he works to pass a budget bill, a legal requirement to prevent his coalition from collapsing.

The return of Ben-Gvir’s party, which holds six seats in the Knesset, serves as a lifeline for Netanyahu as the deadline to approve the budget approaches.

On a more practical level, it could be argued that Netanyahu used the ceasefire as a tactical retreat to replenish Israel’s arsenal, which is primarily made up of US-supplied weapons and ammunition.

The Israeli military, which had been stretched thin by over 15 months of relentless bombing in Gaza, now possesses capabilities it lacked six weeks ago. Morale among Israeli soldiers had also reached an all-time low, with many defying orders to return to combat.

Since then, warplanes and other military equipment have been repaired, and troops have had time to rest.

It is likely that Netanyahu never truly intended to accept the ceasefire but felt compelled to do so. He may have had no genuine desire to end hostilities but was left with little choice.

However, this could prove to be a miscalculation on the part of Netanyahu and his allies. Just as Israel used the pause to replenish its stocks, so did Hamas.

Hamas and other Palestinian resistance groups mounted fierce resistance during the war. Israeli military commanders were often shocked by how quickly Hamas and other factions regrouped and reemerged in areas of Gaza where Israel had declared them defeated.

In response to the renewed Israeli aggression, Hamas made it clear that Israel would not achieve militarily what it failed to accomplish through negotiations. Israel has sought to dismantle Hamas through both approaches, but neither has succeeded.

Netanyahu’s decision to resume the war also coincides with his ongoing corruption trials and widespread protests against his policies. If convicted, Netanyahu could face prison. On the same day that Israel launched its new strikes on Gaza, a court granted his request to skip a hearing “due to the renewal of the war.”

He could certainly use a distraction on the domestic front. However, this strategy is not without risks. A prolonged military offensive could deepen divisions within Israeli society, particularly if more captives are killed in indiscriminate bombings in Gaza.

Netanyahu, nonetheless, appears willing to take that risk. For him, the war with Hamas is not merely a domestic issue but a critical component of Israel’s regional strategy. By adopting a hardline stance, he may be aiming to send a message to the broader Axis of Resistance.

The Trump administration’s unwavering support for Israel also seems to have been a factor. It has emboldened Netanyahu to pursue a more aggressive strategy in the region, with potentially long-term implications for regional stability.

Alongside strikes on Gaza, the Israeli military has been conducting regular airstrikes on southern Lebanon since reaching a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah to end what was the longest and deadliest war between the two sides.

The renewal of the war on Gaza comes just days after President Trump ordered a massive military strike against Yemen. The Yemeni Ansarullah resistance movement began attacking Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors, shortly after Israel unleashed the genocidal war on Gaza in October 2023.

In ordering the strikes, Trump also vowed to hold Iran accountable for any further attacks by the Yemenis. Iran’s military leadership maintains that if the US or the Israeli regime resorts to any foolhardy military adventure against the country, all American military bases in the region would be annihilated.

Trump, who took credit for the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas shortly before taking office, has made it clear that he would support Netanyahu if he chose to resume the war.

On Tuesday, the White House confirmed that Trump had been consulted “by the Israelis on their attacks in Gaza.”

The resumption of the war in Gaza reverberates far beyond its borders, escalating tensions with Hezbollah, Ansarullah, and the broader Axis of Resistance.

While the official narrative frames the offensive as a strategy to pressure Hamas and secure the release of Israeli captives, the broader motives appear rooted in Netanyahu’s desire to ensure his political survival at home and project power regionally.

For the thousands of Palestinians displaced once again and the families of Israeli captives, the prospects for peace seem as distant as ever.

Hamid Javadi is a senior Iranian journalist and commentator based in Tehran.

(The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of Press TV)

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