Ambitious Integrated Review identifies China as biggest threat to UK

After a long delay the government’s Integrated Review of Security, Defense, Development and Foreign Policy has finally been published and much of its content is consistent with recent leaks.

Biggest defence and security review in decades is struggling to get off the ground

Boris Johnson

At the strategic level, the 114-page document - entitled Global Britain in a competitive age: The Integrated Review of Security, Defense, Development and Foreign Policy - envisages a shift towards the Indo-Pacific – specifically India, South Korea, Japan and Australia – while singling out China as the greatest state-based threat to the UK.

China is described as a “systemic competitor”, whose values and goals are at odds with those of the UK and its key Western allies.

"China's growing international stature is by far the most significant geopolitical factor in the world today, with major implications for British values and interests and for the structure and shape of the international order", the review said.

Nuclear escalation

An anticipated key piece of the document centers on the strengthening of the UK’s nuclear deterrence and as widely reported the government plans to increase the cap on its stockpile of nuclear warheads from 180 to 260.

UK planning to increase nuclear warheads in significant military provocation

The UK is reportedly planning to increase its nuclear warheads stockpile thus sending shockwaves across the international community.

But a veteran BBC journalist (with a military background) has cast doubt on the government’s ability to increase the nuclear warheads stockpile by nearly 40 percent.

Historically, going up to 260 would still be below the highpoint of around 350 nukes that the UK reached in the 1970s when it had both Polaris and an air dropped nuclear weapon (called WE-177) in service. But getting to 260 won't be easily achievable 3/9

— Mark Urban (@MarkUrban01) March 15, 2021

More worryingly, the review not only envisages the expansion of the country’s nuclear warheads, but it goes further by expanding the range of scenarios under which the UK is prepared to use nuclear weapons against another state.

To that end, the review foresees the use of nuclear weapons in response to a “devastating” attack involving non-nuclear “emerging technologies”.

The Daily Telegraph’s deputy political editor and the former defense editor at the Times – Lucy Fisher – quotes one of her government sources as explaining “emerging technologies” includes “game changers” in the form of cyber attacks, artificial intelligence, encryption and laser directed energy weapons.

💥 Britain could use nuclear weapons in response to devastating "emerging technologies", Integrated Review warns.

Govt source says this includes "game changers" such as cyber, AI, encryption and laser directed energy weapons. pic.twitter.com/Zm0EGr1cOk

— Lucy Fisher (@LOS_Fisher) March 16, 2021

On an equally alarming note, the review warns it is likely that a non-state actor in the form of a terrorist group will stage a successful chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear attack within nine years.

The political dimension

The long delay in finalizing and publishing the review led to speculation that the ruling Tories were seeking to derive political capital from its contents.

Plans for ‘Boris bunker’ revealed ahead of publication of key national security document

The UK is reportedly planning to build a

Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, reveled in rhetorical flourish as he explained the key thrust and important details of the review to the House of Commons on Tuesday (March 16).

The PM also wrote a foreword to the review in which he asserted: "Open and democratic societies like the UK must demonstrate they are match-fit for a more competitive world".

"To be open, we must also be secure. Protecting our people, our homeland and our democracy is the first duty of any government, so I have begun the biggest program of investment in defense since the end of the Cold War", Johnson boasted.

Based on his speech to the House of Commons – in which he waxed lyrical about the “necessity” of what he called “global Britain” – it is clear the PM wants the Integrated Review of Security, Defense, Development and Foreign Policy to become the benchmark on how the ruling Tories approach national security and foreign policy issues in the next decade.

However, to what extent Johnson and his team can deliver on the ambitious vision of the review is another matter altogether.

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