Poll: Biden's lead persists post-conventions

After two political conventions unlike any the United States had seen before, Joe Biden maintains an advantage over Donald Trump in the race for the presidency, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

Among registered voters, 51% back Biden, 43% Trump. The difference in each candidate's support when compared with a CNN poll conducted pre-conventions is within the poll's margin of sampling error.

Both candidates boosted the share of their supporters who say they are voting more for their chosen candidate than against his opponent, though that figure is still higher for Trump than it is for Biden. For Biden, it's up to 45%, from 38% pre-conventions, and for Trump, it's now at 77%, up from 67% before the conventions. 

Biden also shifted his favorability ratings into more positive territory (48% view him favorably now, 43% unfavorably) as Trump's remained deeply negative (40% favorable to 56% unfavorable).

The conventions produced few significant changes in how voters view the two candidates on the issues and basic attributes, but some shifts are notable. While Trump held an edge on handling the economy before either convention, this poll finds Trump (49%) and Biden (48%) about even. Biden has inched into an advantage on keeping Americans safe from harm (51% say Biden would, 45% Trump). Trump's numbers have worsened on honesty and trustworthiness (Biden's advantage of 51% to 40% pre-convention has stretched to a 53% to 36% one post-convention) and there's been a dip in the share who say Trump shares their values (it was 52% to 43% pre-convention and now stands at 52% to 39%).  

The poll finds a notable lack of change in voters' perceptions of which candidate has a clear plan for solving the country's problems: 49% say Biden does, 43% Trump, exactly the same as before the conventions. 

Over the course of the two conventions, the crises facing the country were front and center, but which crisis came to the forefront depended on which party was doing the talking. Assessing four issues that featured prominently across both events, the survey finds that when thinking about their own communities, majorities of Americans worry about the coronavirus outbreak (60%), the state of the economy (58%) and the impacts of racism (52%). Far fewer (37%) are worried about the risk of crime in their own community.

There are steep divides between Biden supporters and Trump supporters on those questions. More than 8 in 10 Biden backers worry about the coronavirus outbreak (87%) and the economy (81%), while among Trump supporters, only around 3 in 10 share the same level of worry. Biden's supporters are also far more worried about the impacts of racism (75% worried vs. 24% among Trump's supporters). Biden's supporters are more worried than Trump's about the risk of crime in their own communities, though at a far lower level than their worry about the other three issues tested (39% worried among Biden supporters, 30% among Trump supporters). 

The low level of worry about crime and Biden's growing edge on keeping Americans safe suggest the Trump campaign's focus on that issue may not be having the desired effect. 

All told, most of the changes in public opinion on the presidential race within this poll are small, reflecting how firm many voters are in their choices. Overall, 85% of registered voters say they are locked in to their choice for president, 13% have yet to make a choice or say they could change their minds. 

Trump's approval rating is about the same as in August, 41% approve, 53% disapprove, and there's been little movement in his approval rating on the economy. Disapproval of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak remains widespread at 55%, though that is slightly off the high point of 58% reached in August. That finding comes as Americans' outlook on where the outbreak is heading has shifted more positive: 51% say the worst is behind us, the first time that figure has topped 50%.

The survey also tested favorability ratings for the candidates' wives after both spoke at the conventions. Positive views of Melania Trump have dropped 10 points since 2018, 44% have a favorable impression now, down from 54% two years ago. Jill Biden received a mostly positive reception from the American people: 46% view her favorably, 29% unfavorably, with a sizable 26% unable to express an opinion.

Source: CNN

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