Will Trump complicate 20-year Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict?
May 6, 1998 was the start of a conflict that changed the fate of millions in east Africa. The battle for the dusty market town of Badme that bordered both nations was the spark that erupted a simmering feud into full on bloody warfare. It mattered very little that Badme was neither mineral rich nor the location of oil reserves. What mattered was that both Ethiopia and Eritrea wanted Badme as part of its territory.
At the time, the declaration of war cost an estimated 100,000 people their lives, and was described by international analysts as ‘two bald men fighting over a comb.’ It was a conflict that had heartbreaking consequences for communities that once shared resources and much more.
A ceasefire was brokered by Algeria with backing of the international community in June 2000 but it was another six months until a peace agreement was signed, establishing the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission.
It was meant to settle the dispute over Badme once and for all. But its ‘final and binding’ ruling 18 months later, awarding Badme to Eritrea, was not accepted by Ethiopia without the preconditions of further negotiations with Eritrea. Eritrea, in turn, refuses to talk to its former ally until the ruling is adhered to. Both sides are entrenched in their positions years later and although the war is not in its active phase, both countries have armies facing off against each other.
The state of no-war/no-peace has been negative for both nations. Eritrea has been accused of allowing the training of Al-Shabab takfiri groups in its territory who then lead strikes on Somalia and neighbouring areas. Ethiopia has an active role in trying to curb regional instability and sees moves like this as worrying. For its part, Ethiopia now finds its former access to the sea cut off and now forced to do sizable trade via Djibouti and a new 19% share in the new Somaliland/UAE Barbera port project.
There are signs of a thaw in this frosty relationship but there are concerns about just who the partner of ‘peace’ appears to be. The United States under Donald trump appears to be taking a keen interest in the region. Its most senior African official in the Trump State Department, Donald Yamamoto, completed a visit to Eritrea, Djibouti and Ethiopia on 26 April this year. It’s not yet clear what deal – if any - Yamamoto managed to broker, but sources say he is unlikely to have made the trip without a clear objective in mind. With the US’s ‘American First’ policy in mind, will it be a positive move for the region?
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