Position of anti-Damascus forces, weak: Analyst

Press TV has interviewed Eric Draitser, the founder of stopimperialism.com, to discuss Syria.

The following is a rough transcription of the interview.

Press TV: Before we get going here, let’s set the stage and talk about the ceasefire, unbelievably three weeks old, roughly some minor, I guess, violations but overall holding. Isn’t that a sign that the parties actually want to have this crisis settled?

Draitser: On the one hand I think it is a sign of that. On the other hand I think it is also a sign that the belligerents in the war particularly from the opposition side know that their strategic position is very weak. You see the Saudi-backed opposition, many of these terrorist forces, the rebels and all of the rest of these various groups, all of them have lost a tremendous amount of strategic territory and position on the battlefield and I think because of that, that is really what is driving them for the most part observe the terms of the ceasefire.

From the Syrian’s government perspective of course the battle against the Islamic States (Daesh) and al-Nusra Front continues as we have seen in recent days particularly of course the symbolically and strategically important retaking of Palmyra and also the important corridor that links some of these various towns and cities.

So I think that the calculus on the ground is really what is driving the observance of the ceasefire but also there is probably a sense of battle fatigue here. A lot of these forces have been fighting for more than five years now and have been depleted in terms of their resources and depleted in terms of their morale and so a number of factors, I think a confluence of factors here is really driving the observance of the ceasefire.

Press TV: So when it comes to the peace talks, then I am guessing that the Syrian government and their representatives obviously are talking from a position of strength. So why is it that again yesterday the Saudi-backed opposition has come out saying, well Assad has got to go. Do they even have a basis to make that type of request at this point?  

Draitser: Well from a pure power politics and negotiation perspective they do not but this is I think less a demand that is founded on substantive issues and more it is a negotiating tactic. If you want a thousand dollars you start by asking for two thousand dollars and then you work your way down from there. They are going to start by demanding that Assad must go, then they will negotiate backwards from that position ...

As you noted I think quite correctly in your question there, they are coming to the table from a position of weakness. Therefore, they are not able to dictate terms in this negotiation. I think that is an [embarrassing] reversal from what the United States and its proxies in the region and their proxies on the battlefield are used to and so this negotiation process is actually going to be one that I think it is much more between two equal parties rather than the United States and its allies being able to dictate the terms.

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