Explainer: What arsenal will Iran use to punish Israel over Haniyeh’s assassination?

By Ivan Kesic

The stage is set for the retaliatory military operation against the Israeli regime following the assassination of Hamas political bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday.

A series of statements by the Iranian leadership, including Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) indicate that the regime must brace up for a severe and unprecedented punishment.

Haniyeh was assassinated along with his bodyguard in a terrorist attack in the Iranian capital early on Wednesday. He was in Tehran to attend the swearing-in ceremony of President Pezeshkian.

The attack came barely hours after Israel killed top Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in an airstrike on a residential area in the southern suburb of Beirut, in which an Iranian military advisor and some civilians were also martyred.

Following the attack on Haniyeh, Iran called upon the UN Security Council to take immediate and decisive action, describing the attack as a "serious infringement on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iran" and a "blatant violation of the basic norms and principles of international law."

In a letter to the world body, Amir-Saeed Iravani, Iran’s permanent ambassador to the UN, emphasized the country’s right to self-defense under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.

“This rogue and terrorist regime and its accomplices bear responsibility. The Islamic Republic of Iran will not hesitate to exercise its inherent right to self-defense, as enshrined in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter to respond decisively and promptly,” he said.

In a statement on Sunday, IRGC said the attack was carried out with a “short-range projectile” with a warhead of approximately 7 kg fired from outside the residence of Haniyeh in north Tehran.

How will retaliation unfold?

There is an intense and animated debate in military and policy circles about the nature of Iran’s response to the terrorist attack against Haniyeh and the kind of weapons that could be used.

Iran possesses a massive arsenal of long-range precision strike weapons, which it has demonstrated in recent years against regional terrorist strongholds and with direct strikes on the Zionist entity in April.

The country has a massive arsenal of ballistic, quasi-ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles, by far the largest in the region and one of the four largest in the world, as well as some of the most advanced models of loitering munitions, also in colossal quantities.

The long ballistic missiles tailor-made for retaliation against the Zionist regime include Shahab-3, Ghadr-110, Fajr-3, Ashura, Sajjil, Emad, Qiam-1, Rezvan, Khorramshahr and Kheibar, while relatively smaller ballistic missiles include Dezful, Kheibar Shekan and Haj Qasem.

The first group of ballistic missiles has a range of 1,000 to 2,500 km and a warhead of 700 to 1,500 kg, while the second group has a range of 1,000 to 1,500 km and mostly carries a half-ton warhead.

Some of them can also carry several warheads, each capable of aiming different targets and some are fitted with submunitions dispensers for striking wide areas like air bases.

This means that Iran is capable of hitting Zionist targets from every ballistic base or site across the country, and the large payload is equivalent to the most powerful bunker busters and can penetrate hardened targets protected by several meters of concrete.

Novelties in Iran's missile arsenal are the precision-guided Fattah hypersonic missiles with a terminal speed of Mach 13 to 15, and the new Fattah-2 glider version, both untouchable for existing air defense systems.

Furthermore, the last stages of these models also have hypersonic speeds, from Mach 5 to 12, so they are also difficult to intercept by enemy systems, as proved by the operation ‘True Promise’ in April.

Iranian long-range cruise missiles include Soumar, Meshkat, Ya-Ali, Hoveyzeh, Abu Mahdi, Paveh, Talaiyeh and Qadr-474, while long-range loitering munition (kamikaze drones) include Ababil, Arash, Shahed-131, Shahed-136 and Shahed-238.

Iran also has a large fleet of warplanes and drones capable of carrying various bombs and air-to-ground missiles, but previous experience shows that the above-mentioned expendable weaponry is favored for retaliatory operations of this type.

In the April operation against Israel, Iran did not use the most capable ballistic missiles or loitering munition, but still managed to hit Israeli air bases with Kheibar Shekan missiles successfully and engaged numerous Israeli, American, British and French aircraft in the interception of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones.

In that operation, the main purpose of small, cheap and slow kamikaze drones with 50 kg warheads was not to cause damage but to load radar systems in a simultaneous attack with more powerful missiles.

A flight hour of modern jets and their air-to-air missiles, or air defense missiles, cost several times more than kamikaze drones, hence the successful shooting down of swarms represents a cost-efficiency loss.

Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Division, said that in the operation "True Promise" only 20 percent of the originally planned weapons were used, but the enemies had to mobilize everything at their disposal to counter them.

This time, for the announced new strike on the Zionist entity, it is possible to see newer models of missiles and kamikaze drones or those relatively older models in larger quantities.

This time, the targets could be new, since the Ramon and Nevatim air bases were targeted in April as warplanes that took part in the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus had taken off from there.

Since the latest terrorist attack in Tehran was most likely carried out by Zionist intelligence operatives, the headquarters of Israeli spy organizations are potential targets.

These headquarters, unlike the two mentioned air bases, are not in uninhabited desert regions but in the densely populated metropolitan Tel Aviv, where half of the population of the Zionist entity lives.

Other likely targets are military bases, vital industrial infrastructure, ports or regime buildings, also in the areas of ​​Tel Aviv, Haifa and other major cities in the occupied territories.

Due to the high sophistication and precision of Iranian missiles, the only danger for ordinary settlers in the occupied territories is the debris of their own interceptor missiles, either in the case of successful or unsuccessful shooting down.

Warnings from Iran

On Wednesday, Ayatollah Khamenei had warned the Israeli regime of a "harsh response" for the assassination of a “dear guest” – the leader of the Hamas resistance movement.

"The criminal and terrorist Zionist regime martyred our dear guest in our homeland and left us bereaved, but it also set the ground for a harsh punishment for itself," the Leader said.

"He was not afraid of embracing martyrdom in the way of God and saving God's servants, but we consider it our duty to avenge his blood in this bitter and horrific incident that took place in the Islamic Republic's territory," he asserted.

President Pezeshkian, in a meeting with Jordanian top diplomat Ayman Safadi on Sunday, described the assassination of Haniyeh as a "great crime" that he said "will not go unanswered." 

The IRGC said in a statement that the terrorist attack was “planned and executed” by Israel with the support of the US government, warning that the Zionist regime would receive "a severe punishment at the appropriate time, place and manner."

The top commander of IRGC, Major General Hossein Salami, strongly warned the Israeli regime of the consequences of the recent assassinations in Tehran and Beirut.

The perpetrators, he said, "should await sacred fury, harsh revenge, and vengeance on the part of the devoted, resolute, and determined mujahedeen of the various fronts of the regional resistance."

On Friday, Ali Baqeri Kani, acting Foreign Minister, said Iran will certainly exercise its inherent and legitimate right to punish the "criminal Zionist gang" for its terrorist attack.

Baqeri made these remarks during a phone call with Josep Borrell, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, emphasizing that the Israeli regime's terrorist act, in addition to violating Iran's territorial integrity and national sovereignty, has endangered regional and international peace and stability.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf in remarks on Sunday said Iran’s "crushing and smart response" to the Israeli regime and the US will make them regret the assassination.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon has announced the deployment of additional warplanes and warships to the Persian Gulf region, as well as an additional 4,000 Marines and sailors amid heightened tensions.

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