Germany halves Ukraine military aid as Trump’s re-election odds rise

German leaders plan to slash military assistance to Kiev in 2025 to half as Donald Trump, who is against the Ukraine war, looks more probable to become the new president of the United States.

Trump, who is a staunch opponent of continued aid to Kiev, is seen as the likely winner of the 2024 US presidential election.

Last week, a NATO summit in Washington addressed concerns regarding the potential political changes in the US. It was agreed that NATO would take over coordination of weapons deliveries to Ukraine from the United States.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the new decision meant that from September the 700 personnel from across the alliance will begin working under new leadership in Germany.

However, Germany surprised the other members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization by announcing its plans to nearly halve military aid for Ukraine next year, from around 8 billion euros to around 4 billion, according to a draft budget approved by Berlin’s government.

Germany, which had initially shown reluctance to support Ukraine in its war against Russia, later became Kiev’s main European supplier of military aid.

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Finance Minister Christian Lindner said Ukraine would have to rely more on funds from "European sources" as well as hoped-for income from frozen Russian assets.

"The aim is to make $50 billion available this year, Ukraine can then decide for itself how to use them," Lindner said after the cabinet approved the draft budget.

Berlin hopes Kiev will be able to meet the bulk of all its military needs to fight against Russia's troops with the $50 billion in loans from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets approved by the Group of Seven. 

Analysts say Germany's decision to cut military aid to Ukraine will likely be seen in Kiev as ample evidence of Berlin’s under-delivering on aid.

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Since Russia started its military campaign in Ukraine in 2022, Germany's military aid to Ukraine has been more than any other European country.

Germany has supplied weapons and ammunition, including tanks and other armored vehicles, in addition to thousands of rounds of artillery shells. It has also provided huge assistance on air defense and other systems.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly touted Germany's aid to Kiev, while pushing the other European countries to do more, particularly as the re-election of Trump in the US looks increasingly likely and Europe faces the likely chances of having to fund and arm Ukraine alone.

Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election would mean a decrease in Washington's aid to Kiev.

Stoltenberg said on Thursday that it's extremely important that the United States continues to provide support to Ukraine.

"The United States is by far the biggest ally. So, I expect them to continue to support Ukraine," he said.

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