West Asian countries moving toward alternative, sanctions-busting routes: Analyst

Countries in West Asia are moving from traditional trade routes to alternative ones, providing cheaper and quicker freight services in defiance of the West’s unilateral sanctions against them, according to an analyst.

Sharmine Narwani, a Lebanon-based commentator on West Asia geopolitics, told Press TV in an interview that new trade routes under development in West Asia are game changers that enable the regional countries to circumvent European powers’ main routes which serve their national interest.

“The Chinese are going to create land routes throughout all of Asia and into Europe that did not exist, as are the Russians, the Iranians, … a lot of Asian countries have for a few years been actively pursuing these alternative routes, which by the way, make shipping a lot cheaper, but importantly brings this valuable, important ability into their national hands,” Narwani said.

She noted that China’s multi-trillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a trans-continental passage that links China with Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Russia, and Europe by land, will fundamentally “upend Western shipping and transportation systems and mechanisms throughout the world.”

Narwani, a columnist at The Cradle, stressed that Iran could have circumvented Suez Canal had the Iraqis launched a project to cut the waterway.

“You’re not dependent on the Suez Canal if Iraq has launched a project, a route that would cut the Suez route, which reduces the cost of shipping by 20 to 25 days,” she said.

Geopolitical Situation in West Asia

The world is experiencing fundamental changes in the global power constellation and as the geostrategically most important region in the world, West Asia is in the middle of these historic transformations.

The Suez route, a heavily used shipping lane from the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean, is currently the main commercial artery between Asia and Europe.

Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue hit a record high of $7 billion in the financial year to June 30, 2022, up 20.7% from the previous year, according to Canal authorities.

Narwani also explained that the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a project operated by Iran, India, and Russia, is another “sanction-busting route” for speeding up cargo delivery through a multi-mode network of ship, rail, and road route.

INSTC was established in 2000 to promote transportation cooperation among the member states.

The corridor connects the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea via Iran and then is connected to St. Petersburg and Northern Europe via the Russian Federation. 

The INSTC was expanded to include eleven new members, namely Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine, Belarus, Oman, Syria, and Bulgaria.

In a report published in December 2022, Bloomberg described INSTC as “a 3,000–kilometer passage that’s beyond the reach of any foreign intervention.”

“It’s not just China’s BRI project, but there are a lot of players in the region, from Turkey to Azerbaijan to Iran to Russia to Pakistan, who are creating these corridors that have been in development for a long time,” she said.

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World War III

Elsewhere in her remarks, Narwani argued that the foreign-backed war in Syria can count as the third World War.

“I’ve argued that we’ve been in world war three in Syria, and why do I say that?” she said. “If you look at the world wars, there are several things that are absolutely part and parcel for a World War, one is a major power standoff.”

The analyst said a world war is followed by “a rejigging of a global institution,” adding that ramped-up attempts by Iran, China, and Russia among others, in search for alternative ways to message between banking systems and to create alternative currencies are among the characteristics of a world war.

She also described the war in Syria as an “existential battle” for Iran and its allies to stop terror in the region and safeguard their strategic depth.

“Strategic depth doesn’t mean colonizing or being an imperial power or forcing yourself on neighboring countries. It basically means establishing solid enough relations that the neighboring country will never be used as a launching pad against you. So this is why Iran can no longer rely on its borders,” Narwani added.

She said China and Russia are both well aware of the propaganda war on alleged human rights abuses against Uyghurs and other ethnic and religious minorities in China as well as Russia’s Dagestan and Chechnya ethnic tensions.

And that is why, according to Narwani, both China and Russia are said to be fighting existential battles in Syria and that Syria is the “first battlefield of world war three.”

Since 2011, Syria has been the scene of foreign-sponsored conflict. In 2014, the US and its allies invaded Syria, ostensibly to battle the Daesh Takfiri terrorist group.

However, after Syria and its allies, including Iran and Russia, defeated the terrorist outfit in late 2017, the US-led coalition maintained its presence in the region under the pretext of preventing the oilfields in the area from falling into the hands of terrorists; while actually, they have their eyes on the country’s natural resources.

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‘Iran a strategic player’

Narwani also lauded Iran as a “stellar strategic player,” saying that the Iranian government is “chock-full of strategic thinkers.” However, she said the government does not propagate its values enough.

“Americans thought, from [former US president Barak] Obama onwards, and still think that they can temper Iran behaviors by engaging with them in some kind of way, [but] Iran does what it does because it’s beneficial to Iran. Every country should act in that way,” she added.

She stated that not many tools are left in the US’ “policy toolbox,” nonetheless, they cannot afford to engage in another war in the region.

“West Asia can pretty much assure itself that there’s not going to be any major hot war in the region but we’re going to have plenty of troubling instigation, sabotage, efforts to buy off people and to sway perceptions, but the toolbox is very small these days for the Americans,” she said.

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