Moscow, Ankara not interested in further escalation: Analyst

Press TV has interviewed Rustem Safronov, a political analyst from Washington, on speculations over a potential collaboration between Turkey and the United States on downing of a Russian warplane.

Following is a rough transcription of the interview.

Press TV: Russia handed a flight plan to the Americans. They knew whose Sukhoi bomber it was that was flying near the Turkish border. Are we to believe that Turkey acted on its own without US approval?

Safronov: We do not know what is happening in the brains of politicians. So that is the nature of politics, sometimes politicians saying one thing, but really mastermind or mean something else. We do not know what Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Davutoglu are thinking when they tried to organize that shooting. So it could be one game obviously related to the issue. They benefit from contraband of oil, dealing with some kind of ISIS (Daesh) groups, the state and whatever in some businesses.

It could be just they desire supposedly to defend ethnic Turkmen, which ally themselves with different radical groups fighting against Bashar al-Assad’s government. But, we could allow the idea that the United States did know all details … I would think, under the circumstances, the United States would not be interested to do that. My thinking would be that so probably like Turkish politicians decided to spoil the game a little bit, and that alliances, which we could see vaguely, could be possible between Russia and Western countries fighting ISIS in the territory of Syria.

Press TV: What stake do you think Turkey has? And do you think the situation would escalate following Turkey’s decision to destroy a Russian warplane?

Safronov: The situation looks pretty grim, but in the big scale I do not think both of our countries are really interested to escalate it more and bring it to the brink of the war or something like that. And nobody is interested in that kind of outcome.

The truth of the matter is if Turkey made a step ahead towards Russia, for example apologize by saying, OK it was just not a nice incident, we will pay compensation, probably things would be possible to smooth out, but Russia has to react. And obviously Russia could not allow itself reconsideration, being a nuclear power and having important missions in Syria now, together with Bashar Assad and Iran, to get into the global confrontation with NATO. Nobody needs that.

[It is] very difficult to get out of that, but I would say, probably, at a certain period of diplomatic tensions and some economic sanctions, which could be like quite dramatic, finally problematic things would have to come back to business as usual, because too many investments Turks had in Russia, too much depending on Turkish economy … Luckily, I think, we had a chance to improve it. How long it will take is a big question. So it is many many factors, internal factors ... difficult situation in Turkey itself … who knows what another strange, eccentric tricks Mr. Erdogan could come up with?

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